Statistical Advance: Analyzing the UAW-Dodge 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

This Sunday is Round 3 for the “new car” competing in each of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races this season – and so far, some telling trends have developed.

Trend 1: Tight and varied competition up front. There were a record number of lead changes (33) at the Auto Club Speedway last weekend, which followed a Daytona 500 that challenged the race record for lead changes (42) and leaders (16).

Trend 2: New Victory Lane appearances: In 2007, Chevrolets dominated the “new car” races, winning 13 of the 16. This season, the Chevrolets have thus far been shut out, with a Dodge (Ryan Newman) and a Ford (Carl Edwards) grabbing the checkered flags.

These recent trends may be helping the field catch reigning series champion Jimmie Johnson – winner of the last three races at Las Vegas.

Johnson has been a one-man wrecking crew at Vegas, notching series-highs in Driver Rating (133.7), Average Running Position (5.1) and Fastest Laps Run (149) during his win streak.

But will the “new car” even the playing field this weekend like it did the previous two?

The most likely candidates to dethrone Johnson are teammate Jeff Gordon and former teammate Kyle Busch. Both have won races in the new car, and both have solid statistics at Las Vegas.

In the past three Vegas races, Gordon has a Driver Rating of 114.1 and an Average Running Position of 8.1 He finished second there last season. Points leader Kyle Busch has a Vegas Driver Rating of 108.7 and an Average Running Position of 7.1.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2007 Top 12 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway




Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating



1
Kyle Busch
4
0
0
2
3
1
13.8
123.3

2
Ryan Newman
7
1
0
1
4
1
18.7
100.9

3
Tony Stewart
9
0
0
4
6
0
11.2
101.2

4
Kurt Busch
7
0
0
1
2
1
17.6
79.4

5
Carl Edwards
3
0
0
0
1
0
15.3
105.0

6
Kasey Kahne
4
2
0
2
2
2
19.8
106.7

7
Kevin Harvick
7
0
0
1
2
0
15.7
90.8

8
Jimmie Johnson
6
0
3
3
4
0
6.0
107.4

9
Greg Biffle
4
1
0
0
2
1
17.5
97.9

10
Jeff Burton
10
0
2
3
6
0
11.0
85.3

11
Brian Vickers
3
0
0
0
0
1
29.3
80.9

12
Martin Truex, Jr
2
0
0
0
0
0
16.0
85.3



Selected Driver Highlights – Las Vegas Motor Speedway-specific
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last three races at Las Vegas. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Two top 10s
• Average finish of 17.5
• Average Running Position of 11.8, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 95.5, seventh-best
• 27 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.735, seventh-fastest
• 543 Laps in the Top 15 (67.5%), tied for seventh-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Chevrolet)
• Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 11.0
• Average Running Position of 11.1, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.6, ninth-best
• 26 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 206 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• 644 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1%), fourth-most
• 135 Quality Passes, third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 17.6
• Average Running Position of 11.5, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.1, eighth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.426, ninth-fastest
• 582 Laps in the Top 15 (72.4%), sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• Two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 13.8
• Average Running Position of 7.1, second-best
• Driver Rating of 108.7, third-best
• 49 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Green Flag Speed of 162.170 mph, third-fastest
• 746 Laps in the Top 15 (92.8%), third-most
• 132 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives
• Average finish of 12.9
• Average Running Position of 8.1, third-best
• Driver Rating of 114.1, second-best
• 66 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 200 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.484 mph. second-fastest
• 748 Laps in the Top 15 (93.0%), second-most
• Series-high 153 Quality Passes

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 6.5
• Average Running Position of 13.0, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.7, 10th-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.415 mph, 10th-fastest
• 349 Laps in the Top 15 (65.0%), 12th-best percentage
• 71 Quality Passes (35.5 per race), seventh-most per race

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Three wins, four top 10s
• Average finish of 6.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
• Series-best Driver Rating of 133.7
• Series-high 149 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 163.075 mph
• Series-high 749 Laps in the Top 15 (93.2%)
• 139 Quality Passes, second-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 7.6
• Average Running Position of 12.7, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 104.5, fourth-best
• 39 Fastest Laps Run, tied for fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 161.862 mph, fifth-best

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• Four top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 11.2
• Average Running Position of 9.7, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.9, fifth-best
• 39 Fastest Laps Run, tied for fourth-most
• 205 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.147 mph, fourth-fastest
• 640 Laps in the Top 15 (79.6%), fifth-most
• 126 Quality Passes, fifth-most

At Las Vegas Motor Speedway:
History
• The first NASCAR race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway was a NASCAR Camping World Series, West race won by Ken Schrader on Nov. 2, 1996.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on March 3, 1998 – won by Mark Martin.
• The first NASCAR Nationwide Cup race was held on March 16, 1997 – won by Jeff Green.
• The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race was won by Jack Sprague on Nov. 3, 1996.
Notebook
• There have been 10 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
• Seven drivers have participated in all 10 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Dale Jarrett, Bobby Labonte, Mark Martin, Sterling Marlin and Joe Nemechek.
• Dale Jarrett won the inaugural Coors Light Pole (Feb. 27, 1998).
• Mark Martin won the inaugural NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race (March 1, 1998).
• Seven drivers have posted poles, led by Dale Jarrett, Kasey Kahne and Bobby Labonte (two each).
• Six different drivers have won, led by Jimmie Johnson (three).
• Only three of the 10 races have been won from a top 10 starting position and none have been won from the pole.
• Four of the 10 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 20.
• The deepest in the field that a race winner has started was 25th by Matt Kenseth in 2004.
• There has been one green-white-checkered finish: 2006 (270/267).
• Jimmie Johnson has won the past three NASCAR Sprint Cup races. The most recent driver to win four consecutive races at a track was Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Talladega (fall 2001-fall 2003). The most recent driver to win four straight in the same event was Jeff Gordon in the Southern 500 at Darlington (1995-98).
• Roush Fenway Racing had five drivers finish in the top 10 in the inaugural Las Vegas 400 in 1998. Five of the 10 race winners at Las Vegas were driving for Roush Fenway at the time: Mark Martin (1998), Jeff Burton (1999 and 2000), and Matt Kenseth (2003 and 2004).
The Local Flavor
• There have been 11 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Nevada.
• All-time, 19 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series have their home state recorded as Nevada.
• There have been three race winners from Nevada in NASCAR’s three national series:

Driver
NSCS
NNS
NCTS

Kurt Busch
17
2
4

Kyle Busch
4
11
6

Brendan Gaughan
0
0
8



Las Vegas Speedway Data
Race # 3 of 36 (3-2-08)
Track Size: 1.5 miles
• Race Length: 267 laps/400.5 miles
• Banking/Corners: 20 degrees
• Banking/Frontstretch: 9 degrees
• Banking/Backstretch: 9 degrees

Driver Rating at Las Vegas
Jimmie Johnson 133.7
Jeff Gordon 114.1
Kyle Busch 108.7
Matt Kenseth 104.5
Tony Stewart 100.9
Mark Martin 97.0
Greg Biffle 95.5
Kurt Busch 94.1
Jeff Burton 93.6
Denny Hamlin 91.7
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (3 total) at Las Vegas.

Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Kasey Kahne (184.856 mph, 29.212 seconds)
2007 race winner: Jimmie Johnson (128.183 mph, 3-11-07)
Track qualifying record: Kasey Kahne (184.856 mph, 29.212 seconds,
3-9-07)
Track race record: Mark Martin (146.554 mph, 3-1-98)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 50-55 laps, based on fuel mileage.