Pre-Race Driver Rating Analysis Johnson Looks For Four-Peat

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Feb. 27, 2008) – In both races this season, the top-five finishing order looked very similar to the pre-race Driver Rating top five at each track – further suggesting pre-race Driver Rating is an excellent race analyzing tool.

Daytona 500
Pre-Race
Driver Finish DR Rank
Ryan Newman 1 4
Kurt Busch 2 3
Tony Stewart 3 1
Kyle Busch 4 8
Reed Sorenson 5 40

Auto Club 500
Pre-Race
Driver Finish DR Rank
Carl Edwards 1 6
Jimmie Johnson 2 2
Jeff Gordon 3 12
Kyle Busch 4 3
Matt Kenseth 5 1

The stat should bode well for Johnson, Gordon, Busch, Kenseth and Stewart, who rank one through five in the pre-race Driver Rating for Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Driver Rating is an amalgam of the following statistics: Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish).

But over the last three Las Vegas races, there hasn’t been good news for anyone but Johnson. Johnson, winner of three consecutive LVMS races, has excelled at the 1.5-mile track. Below are his race-by-race stats over the streak:

Jimmie Johnson at Las Vegas (Last Three Races)
Date Finish ARP DR FL LT15
3/05 1 4 140.5 72 256
3/06 1 5 122.3 12 264
3/07 1 6 138.2 60 229
Total 1 5.1 133.7 149 749
ARP: Avg. Running Position DR: Driver Rating
FL: Number of Fastest Laps LT15: Laps in the Top 15

**** Check out nascarmedia.com’s new driver-by-driver race logs for all season-to-date stats and individual race-by-race stats at Las Vegas. ****

But it’s not as if Johnson was on an island every race. The competition – mostly from Gordon, Kyle Busch, Stewart and Kenseth – has been close. Below are the combined/average stats from the four drivers at Las Vegas during Johnson’s three-race win streak:

Jeff Gordon
Driver Rating: 114.1
Avg. Running Position: 8.1
# of Fastest Laps: 66
Laps in the Top 15: 748

Kyle Busch
Driver Rating: 108.7
Avg. Running Position: 7.1
# of Fastest Laps: 49
Laps in the Top 15: 746

Matt Kenseth
Driver Rating: 104.5
Avg. Running Position: 12.7
# of Fastest Laps: 39
Laps in the Top 15: 494

Tony Stewart
Driver Rating: 100.9
Avg. Running Position: 9.7
# of Fastest Laps: 39
Laps in the Top 15: 640

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There’s more good news for Gordon and Kenseth – and Dale Earnhardt Jr. The three marquee drivers are all outside the top 12 in points, but inside the top 12 in Driver Rating. If 2008 is anything like 2007, that could mean a lot.

Last year after two races, nine drivers in the top 12 of season-to-date Driver Rating made the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup – and six of those drivers were not in the top 12 in points:

2007 Points After Driver Rating
Drivers Points Race #2 After Race #2
Jimmie Johnson 1 15 10
Jeff Gordon 2 3 9
Clint Bowyer 3 6 8
Matt Kenseth 4 12 1
Kyle Busch 5 9 6
Tony Stewart 6 21 4
Kurt Busch 7 19 7
Jeff Burton 8 2 2
Carl Edwards 9 26 13
Kevin Harvick 10 4 3
Martin Truex Jr. 11 38 25
Denny Hamlin 12 18 14