Wednesday, May 14, 2008

‘In The Loop’ At The NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race

“All Or Nothing” Format Suits Some, Not Others

The NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race format – short segments, all-or-nothing racing – fits some driving styles perfectly. Like past winners Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon, or the naturally aggressive Kyle Busch, for instance.

But, the format isn’t always so kind to others.

Three drivers who usually top the statistical charts have struggled recently at the All-Star race: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

Below is a rundown of All-Star experiences for those three drivers:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Earnhardt’s All-Star race stats tell an interesting story about his strategy. Earnhardt, known for running fast laps (he ranks third in Fastest Laps Run this season with 274), has taken a more patient approach during the All-Star race – at least that’s what the stats suggest.

Over the past three races, Earnhardt has an Average Running Position of 12.7 (which ranks 18th), a Driver Rating of 76.4 (21st) and has run zero fastest laps.

BUT…because he has avoided trouble, his average finish over the past three races is a solid 9.3.

Denny Hamlin

On the other hand, Hamlin and Truex have been caught up in the inevitable – the accident that usually occurs when drivers are racing only for the win.

Hamlin has competed in just one NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race, last season. The experience was not all that enjoyable.

Hamlin, who finished 17th in a field of 21 cars, had a Driver Rating of 47.7, an Average Running Position of 12.5 and zero Fastest Laps Run.

BUT…until a Lap 63 accident, Hamlin ran a solid race. He had spent all but two Laps in the Top 15 and had 27 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), which was fifth-most in the race.

Martin Truex Jr.

Truex, in his first trip to the All-Star race (2005), suffered a similar fate as Hamlin in 2007. In 2005, Truex finished last among 22 cars and completed only 35 of the 90 laps. The culprit – a 10-car accident that ended the night for seven drivers.

But last season, Truex took a page out of then-teammate Earnhardt’s playbook. A patient Truex finished 10th, but had a low Driver Rating of 57.7 and an Average Running Position of 12.7.

On the other hand, the All-Star race style does fit some drivers – like Johnson, Gordon and Busch, who figure to be the favorites on Saturday night.

Take a look at their stats and where they rank over the past three years (Johnson and Gordon have run all three of the races, Busch only two):

Jimmie Johnson
Name Stat Rank
Driver Rating 113.6 2nd
Avg. Running Pos. 6.2 3rd
Fastest Laps Run 44 1st
Laps in the Top 15 240 3rd
Quality Passes 66 3rd

Jeff Gordon
Name Stat Rank
Driver Rating 104.4 4th
Avg. Running Pos. 6.6 4th
Fastest Laps Run 25 3rd
Laps in the Top 15 259 1st
Quality Passes 83 1st

Kyle Busch
Name Stat Rank
Driver Rating 102.8 5th
Avg. Running Pos. 8.8 9th
Fastest Laps Run 18 15th
Laps in the Top 15 110 16th
Quality Passes 35 16th

* * * * * * * * * * *

A potential “wild card” in the All-Star race: Elliott Sadler. Sadler, who is not locked into the race, needs to either “race his way in” by finishing first or second in the Sprint Showdown, or win the fan vote. If he does, he could pose a real threat.

In his last All-Star race, in 2005, Sadler finished second and racked up some single-race stats that haven’t been eclipsed in the two years since: a Driver Rating of 135.7 and 32 Fastest Laps Run.

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