‘In The Loop’ At Dover International Speedway

Perfect Timing: Dover The Spot For A Kenseth Rebound


DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (May 28, 2008) – In 2006, Matt Kenseth sat comfortably in second place in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series standings after 12 races. Last season, he was third at this juncture.

But this season, the 2003 series champion is 16th, and in danger of missing the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup for the first time in his career (only Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson have made each of the four Chases). Currently, Kenseth is 190 points outside the Chase cut-off of 12th place.

The statistics show his race-by-race Driver Ratings have taken a huge dip, which is telling because the Driver Rating encompasses a number of key statistics like finish, laps led, fastest laps run and average running position.

Below are Kenseth’s Driver Ratings through 12 races over in 2006, 2007 and 2008:

2006
Track DR
Daytona 87.9
Auto Club 123.0
Las Vegas 135.8
Atlanta 99.7
Bristol 130.2
Martinsville 88.3
Texas 104.5
Phoenix 107.4
Talladega 102.4
Richmond 79.4
Darlington 119.1
Lowe's 100.5
Average 106.5

2007
Track DR
Daytona 93.5
Auto Club 141.5
Las Vegas 83.7
Atlanta 112.3
Bristol 87.3
Martinsville 72.5
Texas 114.1
Phoenix 107.9
Talladega 74.6
Richmond 80.8
Darlington 94.7
Lowe's 120.2
Average 98.6

2008
Track DR
Daytona 81.8
Auto Club 105.3
Las Vegas 117.5
Atlanta 85
Bristol 94.5
Martinsville 53.9
Texas 114.7
Phoenix 34.8
Talladega 47.5
Richmond 47.8
Darlington 89.7
Lowe's 91.3
Average 80.3

Not only has Kenseth’s average Driver Rating dropped by more than 18 points from last season to this one, but his single race ratings have also dropped. He has had three Driver Ratings over 100 points this season, compared to eight in 2006 and five in 2007 over the same 12-race span.

But all is not lost for Kenseth. This Sunday, he’ll have a chance to improve his performance at one of his best tracks. In his six previous Dover races, Kenseth has scored a Driver Rating below 100 just once. Below is his race-by-race log at Dover (all driver race logs can be seen at NASCARMedia.com):

Kenseth at Dover (2005-2007)
Date Finish ARP FLR LT15% DR
6/05 7 9.0 18 90.3% 100.1
9/05 35 14.3 11 68.6% 84.6
6/06 1 4.2 45 99.8% 132.5
9/06 10 3.2 55 98.0% 132.1
6/07 5 7.9 0 99.0% 101.7
9/07 35 4.7 93 90.8% 120.5
Average 15.5 7.2 222 91.0% 111.9
ARP: Average Running Position
FLR: Fastest Laps Run
LT15%: Percentage of Laps in the Top 15
DR: Driver Rating

Over the last six races, Kenseth has finished inside the top 10 four times. The two races he didn’t: the fall of 2005 when an accident ended his day after 367 laps; and last fall’s race when engine failure ended his race after 374 laps. He led a race-high 192 laps that day.

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Loop Data Defined: NASCAR statistics generated from electronic scoring loops embedded around each track hosting races in NASCAR’s three national series – the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, NASCAR Nationwide Series and NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.