Statistical Advance: Analyzing The Kobalt Tools 500 At Atlanta Motor Speedway

In his six full seasons in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, only once has Jimmie Johnson been lower than his current 14th-place points position after the first three races.
That was in 2004, when he was 19th after three races.

Actually, he’s been in the top five most of his career at this point:

2007 – 4th
2006 – 1st
2005 – 2nd
2004 – 19th
2003 – 3rd
2002 – 13th

But, no worries. Why? Because Atlanta Motor Speedway is on the horizon.

Johnson has three wins there, and in 2002 and 2004 – the only other years he wasn’t in the top five in points after three races – the Atlanta race righted the ship.

In 2002, he scored a third-place finish to move into 10th place in the standings and in 2004, he used a fourth-place Atlanta finish to catapult into ninth place in the series standings.

There’s no reason to believe he won’t have similar success in this weekend’s Kobalt Tools 500.

Johnson, who swept last season’s Atlanta races, has been statistically brilliant at the 1.54-mile track. In the six races since 2005, he has a Driver Rating of 118.3, an Average Running Position of 5.7, 161 Fastest Laps Run and has spent 94% of the total laps in the top 15.

And over the last nine races, he has eight top 10s – three of which were wins and two others that were runner-up finishes.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2008 Top 12 at Atlanta Motor Speedway


Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating



1
Carl Edwards
7
0
2
4
6
0
8.7
102.8

2
Kyle Busch
7
0
0
0
0
1
22.6
79.3

3
Ryan Newman
12
7
0
1
4
2
18.8
65.0

4
Kasey Kahne
8
1
1
4
5
2
16.9
87.8

5
Kevin Harvick
14
0
1
2
2
3
24.4
68.3

6
Greg Biffle
10
1
0
2
5
1
15.9
103.5

7
Jeff Burton
27
0
0
7
12
3
16.8
92.4

8
Martin Truex, Jr
6
0
0
0
1
4
28.7
85.6

9
Elliott Sadler
18
0
0
0
3
1
21.4
75.0

10
Dale Earnhardt, Jr
17
1
1
7
9
2
12.2
100.2

11
Tony Stewart
18
0
2
7
11
3
12.6
104.2

12
Kurt Busch
14
0
1
1
4
2
21.3
86.5



Selected Driver Highlights – Atlanta Motor Speedway-specific
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last six races at Atlanta. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Two top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 15.9
• Average Running Position of 9.4, second-best
• Driver Rating of 103.5, third-best
• Series-high 201 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 176.433 mph, second-fastest
• 1,651 Laps in the Top 15 (84.5%), second-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
• Seven top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 16.8
• Average Running Position of 11.4, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 92.4, eighth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.827 mph, ninth-fastest
• 1,533 Laps in the Top 15 (78.5%), sixth-most
• 186 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP/National Guard Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.2
• Average Running Position of 12.0, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.2, fifth-best
• 154 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 410 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 176.329 mph, third-fastest
• 1,367 Laps in the Top 15 (70.0%), eighth-most
• Series-high 210 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
• Two wins, four top fives, six top 10
• Average finish of 8.7
• Average Running Position of 11.7, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.8, fourth-best
• 131 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.991 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,606 Laps in the Top 15 (82.2%), third-most
• 200 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Four wins, 12 top fives, 19 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 13.1
• Average Running Position of 13.0, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 94.7, seventh-best
• 74 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 1,417 Laps in the Top 15 (72.5%), seventh-most
• 202 Quality Passes, second-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Three wins, eight top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 9.4
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.7
• Series-best Driver Rating of 118.2
• 161 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 176.654 mph
• Series-high 1,830 Laps in the Top 15 (93.7%)

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
• One win, four top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 16.9
• Average Running Position of 15.3, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.8, 10th-best
• 72 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.618 mph, 10th-best
• 1,237 Laps in the Top 15 (63.3%), 10th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• Six top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 14.9
• Average Running Position of 14.0, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 95.6, sixth-best
• 85 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 373 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 176.120 mph, fifth-best
• 1,323 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7%), ninth-most
• 196 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.6
• Average Running Position of 10.2, third-best
• Driver Rating of 104.2, second-best
• 127 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.939 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,600 Laps in the Top 15 (81.9%), fourth-most

At Atlanta Motor Speedway:

History

Originally called Atlanta International Raceway, the track was then a 1.5-mile paved speedway.
The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Atlanta was on July 31, 1960 – won by Fireball Roberts.
Jeff Gordon won the first NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Atlanta held March 14, 1992.
The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Atlanta was held March 13, 2004 and won by Bobby Hamilton.
The track was re-measured to 1.522 miles in the spring of 1970.
The track was renamed Atlanta Motor Speedway in 1990.
The track layout was reversed and the track was re-configured to 1.54-miles in between the two races in 1997.
Notebook

There have been 97 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Atlanta Speedway, two races per year except 1961, which had three.
Fireball Roberts won the pole for the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Atlanta in 1960.
Fireball Roberts won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Atlanta.
Buddy Baker and Ryan Newman hold the all-time record for poles with seven each.
Newman won six consecutive poles between March 2003 and October 2005.
41 drivers have won races; 20 have won more than once.
Dale Earnhardt scored nine victories, more than any other driver. Cale Yarborough is second with seven.
Bobby Labonte heads the list of active drivers with Atlanta victories with six. Labonte is tied with Richard Petty for third on the all-time Atlanta win list.
The Wood Brothers notched 12 victories, more than any other car owner. They last won there in 1993 with Morgan Shepherd.
14 races at Atlanta have been won from the pole, the last by Kasey Kahne in 2006.
55 races have been won from the first five starting positions.
Bobby Labonte won in 2001 from the 39th starting position – the deepest in the field that a race winner has started.
There have been seven season sweeps at Atlanta, most recently by Jimmie Johnson in 2007.
Atlanta has produced three of the 12 closest finishes since electronic timing was introduced in May 1993. All three races occurred on the new configuration.
Dale Earnhardt finished 0.010 second ahead of Bobby Labonte in the fifth-closest race (tied with Rockingham-2004) on March 12, 2000.
Kevin Harvick beat Jeff Gordon by 0.006 second on March 11, 2001, in the fourth-closest finish.
Carl Edwards beat Jimmie Johnson by 0.028 second on March 20, 2005, in the 12th-closest finish (tied with Texas April 2004).
The Local Flavor

There have been 156 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Georgia.
151 NASCAR drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Georgia.
There have been 13 race winners from Georgia in NASCAR’s three national series:
Driver
NNCS
NBS
NCTS

Bill Elliott
44
1
0

Tim Flock
39
0
0

Jack Smith
21
0
0

Fonty Flock
19
0
0

Bob Flock
4
0
0

Frank Mundy
3
0
0

Gober Sosebee
2
0
0

Harold Kite
1
0
0

Sam McQuagg
1
0
0

Jody Ridley
1
0
0

Reed Sorenson
0
3
0

Buckshot Jones
0
2
0

Ronald Cooper
0
1
0




Atlanta Motor Speedway Data
Race # 4 of 36 (3-9-08)
Track Size: 1.54 miles
Race Length: 325 laps/500.5 miles
Banking/Corners: 24 degrees
Banking/Straights: 5 degrees
Frontstretch: 2,332 feet
Backstretch: 1,800 feet

Driver Rating at Atlanta
Jimmie Johnson 118.2
Tony Stewart 104.2
Greg Biffle 103.5
Carl Edwards 102.8
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 100.2
Matt Kenseth 95.6
Jeff Gordon 94.7
Jeff Burton 92.4
Mark Martin 92.0
Kasey Kahne 87.8
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at Atlanta.

Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Ryan Newman, 193.124 mph, 28.707 secs.
2007 race winner: Jimmie Johnson, 152.915 mph, 3-18-07)
Track qualifying record: Geoffrey Bodine (197.478 mph, 28.074 secs., 10-21-05)
Race record: Bobby Labonte (159.904 mph, 11-16-97)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 48-52 laps, based on fuel mileage.