Statistical Advance: Analyzing The Food City 500 At Bristol Motor Speedway

Kyle Busch’s 2008 can’t get any better. Can it?

He’s first in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points, first in NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and third in NASCAR Nationwide Series.

He picked up his first 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup win last weekend at Atlanta – and the coveted 10 potential Chase bonus points that go with it.

And with a NASCAR Nationwide win this season, he’ll win at least one race in all three series for the fourth consecutive season. Only Kevin Harvick (2003) and Terry Labonte (1995) have pulled that “cycle,” and they only did it once apiece.

But the news does get better for Busch. He’s back at Bristol this Sunday, the scene of the first-ever race in the car currently used in every race this NASCAR Sprint Cup season.

Busch fended off Jeff Burton to win last season’s March Bristol race by a slim .064-second margin.

But eyes will likely be trained on those drivers a little lower down in the standings. After this race, the 2008 owners points standings will be used to determine which 35 teams are locked into each race (the first five races are determined by the final 2007 owner standings).

That could mean trouble for some notables – namely Casey Mears (30th), Jamie McMurray (31st) and rookies Sam Hornish Jr. (36th) and Dario Franchitti (40th).

Mears has a Bristol Driver Rating of 55.4 and McMurray has a 67.5 – neither of which are in the top 20.

Neither Hornish nor Franchitti have raced on the tricky Bristol layout – a place usually treacherous on rookies. For instance, last season the best finish in the March race by a rookie was David Ragan’s 26th.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2008 Top 12 at Bristol Motor Speedway


Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating



1
Kyle Busch
6
0
1
2
4
0
13.5
90.0

2
Greg Biffle
10
0
0
3
6
0
10.3
102.7

3
Kevin Harvick
14
0
1
7
9
1
10.5
99.2

4
Ryan Newman
12
2
0
1
6
2
20.2
83.0

5
Jeff Burton
28
0
0
7
11
5
18.3
90.5

6
Dale Earnhardt, Jr
16
0
1
6
9
1
11.7
97.5

7
Kasey Kahne
8
1
0
1
2
2
20.0
94.2

8
Tony Stewart
18
1
1
5
6
2
16.9
97.7

9
Brian Vickers
7
0
0
0
0
1
24.6
59.7

10
Kurt Busch
14
1
5
5
9
2
14.5
92.8

11
Martin Truex, Jr
4
0
0
0
0
1
26.0
65.8

12
Matt Kenseth
16
1
2
7
9
3
12.5
111.4



Selected Driver Highlights – Bristol Motor Speedway-specific
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Bristol Motor Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last six races at Bristol. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 10.3
• Average Running Position of 11.2, third-best
• Driver Rating of 102.7, third-best
• 169 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 202 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.575 mph, second-fastest
• 2,203 Laps in the Top 15 (73.3%), fifth-most
• 112 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
• Seven top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 18.3
• Average Running Position of 14.0, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 90.5, 10th-best
• 118 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 193 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• 1,802 Laps in the Top 15 (60.0%), eighth-most
• 105 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 13.5
• Average Running Position of 17.2, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 90.0, 11th-best
• 113 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 196 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• 108 Quality Passes, tied for fifth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP/National Guard Chevrolet)
• One win, six top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 11.7
• Average Running Position of 11.6, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.5, sixth-best
• Series-high 234 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.351 mph, seventh-fastest
• 2,248 Laps in the Top 15 (74.8%), third-most
• 122 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Five wins, 12 top fives, 18 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 11.7
• Average Running Position of 8.5, second-best
• Driver Rating of 103.1, second-best
• 120 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 2,454 Laps in the Top 15 (81.7%), second-most
• Series-high 124 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
• One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 10.5
• Average Running Position of 11.4, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 99.2, fourth-best
• 112 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 209 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 114.500 mph, third-fastest
• 2,237 Laps in the Top 15 (74.5%), fourth-most
• 121 Quality Passes, third-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)
• One top five, two top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 20.0
• Driver Rating of 94.2, seventh-best
• 106 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 1,770 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9%), 11th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• Two wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 12.5
• Series-best Average Running Position of 6.8
• Series-best Driver Rating of 111.4
• Series-high 212 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 114.606
• Series-high 2,759 Laps in the Top 15 (91.8%)

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• One win, five top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 16.9
• Average Running Position of 13.1, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.7, fifth-best
• 137 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 1,777 Laps in the Top 15 (59.2%), 10th-most
• 108 Quality Passes, tied for fifth-most

At Bristol Motor Speedway:
History
• Groundbreaking for Bristol International Speedway, as Bristol Motor Speedway was originally known, took place in 1960. The track was an exact half-mile.
• Bristol held its first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race on July 30, 1961.
• In the fall of 1969, the track was reshaped and re-measured to .533-mile.
• The name changed to Bristol International Raceway in 1978.
• The first night race was held in the fall of 1978.
• The first NASCAR Nationwide race was held on March 13, 1982.
• The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Bristol was held on June 23, 1995.
• The track surface was changed from asphalt to concrete in 1992.
• The name changed to Bristol Motor Speedway in May 1996.
• The track was resurfaced between races in 2007.

Notebook
• There have been 94 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Bristol Motor Speedway since the first race there in 1961, two races each season.
• All Bristol races have been scheduled for 500 laps – except for both races in 1976 and the second in 1977, which were 400-lap events.
• Fred Lorezen won the first Bud Pole at Bristol.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Bristol was won by Jack Smith (with relief from Johnny Allen).
• There have been 41 different pole winners at Bristol; 19 drivers have more than one.
• 36 different drivers have won races at Bristol, led by Darrell Waltrip (12); 14 drivers have more than one victory there.
• The race winner has started from the pole 21 times, the most productive starting position.
• 77 of 94 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 50 from the first four spots.
• The deepest in the field that a Bristol race winner has started was 38th by Elliott Sadler in 2001.
• Junior Johnson won 21 races at Bristol – more than any other car owner. His victories came between 1965 and 1986 and were scored by five different drivers, including one himself.
• Jack Roush is the leading active car owner at Bristol, with nine victories.
• There have been five different pole winners in the past six Bristol races. Qualifying was canceled in the spring of 2006. There have been six different race winners in the eight races at Bristol since Kurt Busch won three straight in 2003 and 2004. Matt Kenseth won the fall race in 2005 and 2006.

The Local Flavor
• There have been 155 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Tennessee:
• 93 NASCAR drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Tennessee.
• There have been twelve race winners on the topthree NASCAR series from Tennessee:

Driver
NNCS
NBS
NCTS

Darrell Waltrip
84
13
0

Sterling Marlin
10
2
0

Bobby Hamilton
4
1
10

Joe Lee Johnson
2
0
0

Paul Lewis
1
0
0

Bobby Hamilton, Jr
0
5
0

Jeff Purvis
0
4
0

L.D. Ottinger
0
3
0

Mike Alexander
0
2
0

Casey Atwood
0
2
0

Brad Teague
0
1
0

Chad Chaffin
0
0
2



Bristol Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 5 of 36 (3-16-08)
Track Size: .533 mile
• Race Length: 500 laps/266.5 miles
• Banking/Corners: 24 to 30 degrees
• Banking/Straights: 4 to 9 degrees

Driver Rating at Bristol
Matt Kenseth 111.4
Jeff Gordon 103.1
Greg Biffle 102.7
Kevin Harvick 99.2
Tony Stewart 97.7
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 97.5
Kasey Kahne 94.2
Elliott Sadler 92.9
Kurt Busch 92.8
Jeff Burton 90.5
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at Bristol.

Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Jeff Gordon (125.453 mph, 15.295 seconds)
2007 race winner: Kyle Busch (81.969 mph, 3-25-07)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (128.709 mph, 14.908 seconds, 3-21-03)
Track race record: Charlie Glotzbach (101.074 mph, 7-11-71)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 120-130 laps, based on fuel mileage.