Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Statistical Advance: Analyzing The Goody’s Cool Orange 500 At Martinsville Speedway

With six NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships between them, it’s hard to say Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are “quietly” lurking in the shadows of the top 12.

But both are without a win and have suffered finishes below 25th this year – so, yes, it’s been a quiet season.

Still, Johnson and Gordon are in 13th and 14th place, respectively. And both are ridiculous at Martinsville Speedway.

Some of the more astounding Martinsville accolades:

• The two have a combined 11 wins.
• The two account for eight of the last 10 wins.
• The two have finished inside the top 10 in every race since 2003.
• They have both finished in the top five in the last five races (Gordon has a string of six consecutive top-five finishes).
• They’ve combined to lead 930 laps in the last three races – 62% of the total laps.
• Since 2005, they both rank in the top three in the following statistics: Driver Rating, Average Running Position, Fastest Laps Run, Average Green Flag Speed and Laps in the Top 15.

In other words, look for both drivers to make a strong play for a spot in the top 12 after the checkered flag flies after Martinsville.

But if not Gordon or Johnson, who?

Figure Tony Stewart the best bet to disrupt the Hendrick dominance. He won the spring race in 2006 (the only non-Hendrick driver to win in the last seven races), and since 2005, has the top Average Running Position (5.9) and the most Laps in the Top 15 (2,700).

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2008 Top 12 at Martinsville Speedway


Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating



1
Kyle Busch
6
0
0
3
4
1
13.2
98.0

2
Greg Biffle
10
0
0
0
1
0
24.0
65.2

3
Kevin Harvick
13
0
0
0
5
0
19.3
89.0

4
Jeff Burton
27
0
1
9
13
4
14.9
81.0

5
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
16
0
0
7
7
2
14.8
95.8

6
Kasey Kahne
8
0
0
1
2
1
16.9
80.5

7
Tony Stewart
18
3
2
6
10
1
12.3
119.3

8
Ryan Newman
12
2
0
5
6
2
14.0
89.1

9
Clint Bowyer
4
0
0
0
1
0
16.3
69.8

10
Kurt Busch
15
1
1
2
4
1
20.3
88.5

11
Matt Kenseth
16
0
0
2
5
2
15.6
81.8

12
Martin Truex Jr.
4
0
0
0
0
0
25.8
58.3



Selected Driver Highlights – Martinsville Speedway-specific
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Martinsville Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last six races at Martinsville. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• Three top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 13.2
• Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.0, fourth-best
• 90 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• 202 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• 2,427 (80.7%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
• 161 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One win, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 20.3
• Average Running Position of 13.4, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 88.5, ninth-best
• 57 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• 2,023 (67.3%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth -most
• 99 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Seven top fives
• Average finish of 14.8
• Average Running Position of 11.9, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.8, sixth-best
• 205 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Series-high 304 Green Flag Passes
• 2,131 (70.9%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
• Series-high 166 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Seven wins, 18 top fives, 24 top 10s; six poles
• Average finish of 7.2
• Average Running Position of 7.3, second-best
• Series-high Driver Rating of 124.5
• Series-high 342 Fastest Laps Run
• 2,606 (86.7%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
• 147 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 11.2
• Average Running Position of 13.6, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 96.5, fifth-best
• 98 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 199 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• 1,579 (63.0%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-best percentage
• 85 Quality Passes for an average of 17.0 per race, tied for eighth-best percentage

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
• Five top 10s
• Average finish of 19.3
• Average Running Position of 15.5, 11th-best
• Driver Rating of 89.0, eighth-best
• 41 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 1,754 (58.3%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
• 84 Quality Passes, 14th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Four wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 6.2
• Average Running Position of 7.3, third-best
• Driver Rating of 120.8, second-best
• 296 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 2,592 (86.2%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
• 151 Quality Passes, third-most

Ryan Newman (No. 12 Alltel Dodge)
• Five top fives, six top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 14.0
• Average Running Position of 14.7, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 89.1, seventh-best
• 210 Green Flag Passes, sixth -most
• 1,801 (59.9%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
• 97 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 12.3
• Series-high Average Running Position of 5.9
• Driver Rating of 119.3, third-best
• 287 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Series-high 2,700 (89.8%) Laps in the Top 15
• 128 Quality Passes, fifth-most

At Martinsville Speedway:
History
• Opened in September 1947 by H. Clay Earles.
• The first NASCAR-sanctioned race at Martinsville was on July 4, 1948.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on Sept. 25, 1949.
• The first NASCAR Nationwide Series race was held March 28, 1982.
• The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Martinsville was Sept. 25, 1995.
• The track was paved in 1955.
• The first 500-lap event at Martinsville was in 1956.
• Concrete corners were added to the asphalt track in 1976.

Notebook
• There have been 118 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Martinsville Speedway, one in the inaugural year and two races per year since 1950.
• Curtis Turner won the pole for the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Martinsville in 1949.
• Red Byron won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Martinsville.
• 56 drivers have posted poles at Martinsville, led by Darrell Waltrip with eight.
• Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin and Darrell Waltrip share the consecutive pole record at Martinsville, each with three.
• Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with six poles at Martinsville.
• There have been seven different pole winners at Martinsville since Jeff Gordon scored three straight (2003-04).
• 44 different drivers have won races at Martinsville, led by Richard Petty with 15.
• Fred Lorenzen holds the consecutive win record with four.
• Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven victories.
• Petty Enterprises has won 19 races at Martinsville, more than any other car owner.
• A sweep has occurred nine times at Martinsville, but only twice since 1994: Jeff Gordon (2005) and Jimmie Johnson (2007).
• Seventeen races at Martinsville have been won from the pole – but none since Jeff Gordon swept both races from the pole in 2003.
• Kurt Busch won the 2002 fall race from the 36th starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.
• There has been one race at Martinsville extended by a green-white-checkered finish: Oct. 21, 2007 (506 Laps).
• Jimmie Johnson has won the last three races at Martinsville. The most recent driver to win four consecutive races at a track was Johnson who swept Lowe’s Motor Speedway in 2004 and 2005. Johnson finished 35th in his first Martinsville appearance (April 2002) – his only DNF there. Since then, he has posted 11 straight top-10 finishes, including four victories. Johnson has finished third or better in his last five Martinsville races. He has completed all but 54 laps in his 12 appearances – with all his incomplete laps coming in that first appearance.
• There were 11 different race winners at Martinsville from the fall of 1997 through 2002 – one short of the record for active tracks held by Texas Motor Speedway. In the nine races since, only four drivers have visited the Martinsville Victory Lane: Jeff Gordon (four), Jimmie Johnson (four), Tony Stewart and Rusty Wallace (one each).

The Local Flavor

• There have been 258 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Virginia.
• 135 NASCAR drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Virginia.
• There have been 18 race winners from Virginia in NASCAR’s three national series:

Driver

NSCS
NNS
NCTS

Joe Weatherly

25
0
0

Ricky Rudd

23
1
0

Jeff Burton

19
27
0

Curtis Turner

17
0
0

Ward Burton

5
4
0

Glen Wood

4
0
0

Elliott Sadler

3
5
0

Denny Hamlin

3
5
0

Emanuel Zervakis

2
0
0

Lennie Pond

1
0
0

Wendell Scott

1
0
0

Tommy Ellis

0
22
0

Jimmy Hensley

0
9
2

Rick Mast

0
9
0

Hermie Sadler

0
2
0

Elton Sawyer

0
2
0

Stacy Compton

0
0
2

Jon Wood

0
0
2



Martinsville Speedway Data
Race #: 6 of 36 (3-30-07)
Track Size: .526 mile
Race Length: 500 laps/263 miles
• Banking/Corners: 12 degrees
• Banking/Straights: 0 degrees
• Frontstretch: 800 feet
• Backstretch: 800 feet

Driver Rating at Martinsville
Jeff Gordon 124.5
Jimmie Johnson 120.8
Tony Stewart 119.3
Kyle Busch 98.0
Denny Hamlin 96.5
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 95.8
Ryan Newman 89.1
Kevin Harvick 89.0
Kurt Busch 88.5
Jamie McMurray 83.5
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at Martinsville Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Denny Hamlin (95.103 mph, 19.911 seconds)
2007 race winner: Jimmie Johnson, 70.258 mph, 4-1-07)
Track qualifying record: Tony Stewart (98.083 mph, 19.306 secs., 10-21-05)
Race record: Jeff Gordon (82.223 mph)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 140-150 laps, based on fuel mileage.

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