Statistical Advance: Analyzing The Pocono 500 At Pocono Raceway

Kyle Busch of 2008 is the Jeff Gordon of 2007, at least in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.

Their numbers are very similar:

Wins: After 13 races last season, Gordon won three races. Busch has won four this year.

Points Lead: Last season, Gordon was 152 points ahead of second-place Jimmie Johnson after 13 races. Right now, Kurt Busch is 142 points ahead of second-place Jeff Burton.

Driver Rating: Last season at this point, Gordon had a Driver Rating of 111.4, including five consecutive races with ratings of at least 120.0. Currently, Busch has a Driver Rating of 115.2, with four straight, single race Driver Ratings of 120.0.

Now, he hopes to mimic another Gordon 2007 accolade: Pocono 500 champion.

He’ll have to exceed his past performances at Pocono to do so. While Busch is not bad at Pocono, his finishes pale in comparison to his current success: one top five, two top 10s and a 16.2 average finish in six starts.

A win would give him 11 victories across NASCAR’s three national series – which would put him three behind the all-time record held by Kevin Harvick.

Harvick won 14 NASCAR national series races in 2006 – five in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and nine in the NASCAR Nationwide Series (Harvick did not attempt a start in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series in 2006).

Of course, Busch could cut the deficit to a single win – he is attempting to run all three national series races this weekend.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Top 12 at Pocono Raceway


Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating



1
Kyle Busch
6
0
0
1
2
1
16.7
87.0

2
Jeff Burton
28
0
0
6
13
4
16.8
90.5

3
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
16
1
0
4
5
1
17.3
75.9

4
Carl Edwards
6
0
1
2
2
0
17.3
86.7

5
Greg Biffle
10
0
0
1
2
1
19.2
77.8

6
Jeff Gordon
30
2
4
15
21
4
10.2
97.5

7
Jimmie Johnson
12
1
2
4
7
0
10.7
93.8

8
Clint Bowyer
4
0
0
0
2
0
20.0
72.2

9
Denny Hamlin
4
2
2
3
4
0
2.8
133.1

10
Kevin Harvick
14
0
0
1
4
2
16.4
95.5

11
Tony Stewart
18
1
1
5
13
2
12.4
103.2

12
Kasey Kahne
8
1
0
1
2
0
19.8
74.2



Selected Driver Highlights
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Pocono Raceway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last six races at Pocono. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Two wins, seven top fives
• Average finish of 14.6
• Average Running Position of 7.5, second-best
• Driver Rating of 116.6, second-best
• Series-high 207 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.711 mph, second-fastest
• 920 (82.9%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
• 190 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Four wins, 15 top fives, 21 top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 10.2
• Average Running Position of 11.1, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.5, fifth-best
• 422 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• 796 (71.7%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
• 225 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• Two wins, three top fives, four top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 2.8
• Series-best Average Running Position of 4.6
• Series-best Driver Rating of 133.1
• 172 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 160.242
• Series-best 93.9% (663 total) Laps in the Top 15
• 138 Quality Passes (average of 34.5 per race), ninth-best average

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
• One top five, four top 10s
• Average finish of 16.4
• Average Running Position of 12.0, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.5, seventh-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.030 mph, ninth-most
• 829 (74.7%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
• 239 Quality Passes, third-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 10.7
• Average Running Position of 12.5, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.8, ninth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.305 mph, fourth-fastest
• 788 (71.0%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
• 204 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Mark Martin (No. 8 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• 19 top fives, 29 top 10s
• 10.7 average finish
• Average Running Position of 11.9, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 95.2, eighth-best
• 28 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.155, eighth-fastest
• 831 (74.9%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
• 193 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• One win, five top fives, six top 10s
• 13.6 average finish
• Average Running Position of 8.6, third-best
• Driver Rating of 101.9, fourth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.226, sixth-fastest
• Series-high 931 (83.9%) Laps in the Top 15
• 249 Quality Passes, second-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• One win, five top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.4
• Average Running Position of 10.5, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 103.2, third-best
• 36 Fastest Laps Run, tied for sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 159.357, third-fastest
• 879 (79.2%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
• Series-high 266 Quality Passes

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
• Three top fives
• 14.4 average finish
• Average Running Position of 11.8, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.0, sixth-best
• 66 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 810 (73.0%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most

At Pocono Raceway:
History
• Opened in 1968 as a .75-mile track, Pocono Raceway held the first race on the 2.5-mile oval in 1971.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was in 1974.
• There was one race from 1974 through 1981, and two a year since then.

Notebook
• There have been 60 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Pocono Raceway since the first race there in 1974.
• Buddy Baker won the first pole at Pocono.
• There have been 35 different pole winners at Pocono. Only 13 drivers have more than one Pole there.
• There have been 21 pole winners in the last 25 races. Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon (two each) are the only repeat pole winners there since 1995. Qualifying was canceled once.
• The pole has been swept just three times: Bill Elliott (1985), Ken Schrader (1993), Denny Hamlin (2006).
• Richard Petty won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Pocono.
• 27 different drivers have won races at Pocono, led by Bill Elliott with five victories. Eighteen drivers have won more than once there.
• There have been 12 different race winners in the 15 races since Bobby Labonte swept in 1999. Jimmie Johnson swept 2004 and Denny Hamlin 2006, while Kurt Busch won the July race in 2005 and 2007.
• There have been six season sweeps at Pocono, including two of the past four seasons.
• Bobby Allison and Tim Richmond each won three consecutive races at Pocono.
• 43 of 60 Pocono races have been won from a top-10 start; 12 by the pole winner.
• The June 2005 race was won by Carl Edwards from the 29th starting position, the deepest in the field a race winner has started.
• Rick Hendrick leads all other car owners with 11 Pocono victories.
• There have been eight car owner season sweeps, including three of the past four seasons (two of the car owner sweeps were with different drivers).
• Denny Hamlin, Paul Menard, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers and J.J. Yeley are the active drivers that have finished on the lead lap in all of their races.
• Denny Hamlin won his first two appearances at Pocono Raceway, claiming both victories from the pole. Hamlin finished sixth and third in his second two races for an average finish of 2.8 in four races – the all-time best of any driver at the Pennsylvania track. He also led 283 of the 706 laps raced in the four races (40 percent).

NASCAR in Pennsylvania
• There have been 95 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Pennsylvania.
• 134 NASCAR drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Pennsylvania.
• Three drivers from Pennsylvania have won a race in NASCAR’s three national series:
Driver NSCS NNS NCTS
Mark Donohue 1 0 0
Dick Linder 3 0 0
Jimmy Spencer 2 12 1

Pocono Raceway Data
Race #: 14 of 36 (6-8-08)
Track Size: 2.5 mile (200 laps/500miles)
• Banking/Turn 1: 14 degrees
• Banking/Turn 2:: 8 degrees
• Banking/Turn 3: 6 degrees
• Frontstretch: 3,740 feet
• Backstretch: 3,055 feet
• Shortstretch: 1,780

Driver Rating at Pocono
Denny Hamlin 133.1
Kurt Busch 116.6
Tony Stewart 103.2
Ryan Newman 101.9
Jeff Gordon 97.5
Brian Vickers 97.0
Kevin Harvick 95.5
Mark Martin 95.2
Jimmie Johnson 93.8
Martin Truex Jr. 91.2
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at Pocono.

Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Ryan Newman (170.062 mph, 52.922 seconds)
2007 race winner: Jeff Gordon, 136.887 mph, 6-10-07)
Track qualifying record: Kasey Kahne (172.533 mph, 52.164 secs., 6-11-04)
Track race record: Rusty Wallace (144.892 mph, 7-21-96)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 28-30 laps, based on fuel mileage.