Statistical Advance: Analyzing The LifeLock 400 At Michigan International Speedway

It’s no secret Carl Edwards loves running the 1.5- and 2-mile tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule.

Here’s why:

• Of his 10 career NASCAR Sprint Cup wins, seven have come at tracks measuring 1.5 or 2 miles (the other three came at Bristol, Dover and Pocono).
• Edwards has three wins this season, all at 1.5 or 2-mile tracks.
• Edwards has scored a Driver Rating over 100.0 in eight races this season. Four of those were at 1.5- or 2-mile tracks (the only 1.5-mile track this season that Edwards has not scored at least a 100.0 Driver Rating was Lowe’s Motor Speedway. He had an 86.1.)
• His top three Driver Ratings came at tracks of that length (139.8 at Texas; 135.4 at Auto Club Speedway; 134.5 at Atlanta).

Now, the series heads to another 2-mile track, Michigan International Speedway, which clearly is good news for Edwards.

He is excellent there. In the past six races, Edwards has four top fives and five top 10s, including a win in last season’s spring race.

Edwards has also notched a Driver Rating of at least 100.0 in five of the last six Michigan races. His lowest rating over that span was 98.5 after a 22nd-place finish in August 2006. His race was still a strong one that day – he had an Average Running Position of 9.4 and 16 Fastest Laps Run.

Also, last season, Michigan was a slump buster for Edwards. He ended a 52-race winless drought with his victory there last season.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Top 12 at Michigan International Speedway




Driver


Races


Poles


Wins


Top Fives


Top 10s


DNFs


Average Finish


Driver Rating



1


Kyle Busch


6


0


0


0


2


1


20.7


88.1

2


Jeff Burton


28


2


0


4


8


1


16.0


72.0

3


Dale Earnhardt Jr.


17


2


0


2


5


2


17.2


98.3

4


Carl Edwards


7


0


1


4


6


0


7.3


112.3

5


Denny Hamlin


4


0


0


1


2


0


10.0


97.1

6


Jimmie Johnson


12


0


0


2


5


1


14.8


104.7

7


Greg Biffle


10


0


2


4


6


0


13.4


105.4

8


Jeff Gordon


30


5


2


15


20


3


10.5


97.0

9


Kasey Kahne


8


1


1


4


4


0


15.3


81.5

10


Kevin Harvick


14


0


0


2


5


1


16.0


75.9

11


Clint Bowyer


4


0


0


0


0


1


26.3


73.0

12


Tony Stewart


18


0


1


8


12


3


12.9


95.7

Selected Driver Highlights
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Michigan International Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last six races at Michigan. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Two wins, four top five, six top 10s
• Average finish of 13.4
• Average Running Position of 9.7, third-best
• Driver Rating of 105.4, third-best
• 88 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• 424 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.329 mph, third-fastest
• 908 (80.2%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
• 279 Quality Passes, third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Two wins, six top fives
• Average finish of 18.9
• Average Running Position of 10.7, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 106.8, second-best
• Series-high 93 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.275 mph, fourth-fastest
• 876 (77.4%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
• 244 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, five top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 17.2
• Average Running Position of 11.7, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 98.3, sixth-best
• 56 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
• 421 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• 792 (70.0%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
• 281 Quality Passes, second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
• One win, four top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 7.3
• Series-best Average Running Position of 7.9
• Series-best Driver Rating of 112.3
• 81 Fastest Laps Run, tied for third-best
• Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 175.550 mph
• Series-high 998 (88.2%) Laps in the Top 15
• Series-high 329 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Two wins, 15 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
• Average finish of 10.5
• Average Running Position of 11.3, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 97.0, eighth-best
• 60 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 811 (71.6%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
• 216 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 10.0
• Average Running Position of 11.3
• Driver Rating of 97.1, seventh-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.926 mph, seventh-best
• 74.3% (544 total) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-best
• 184 Quality Passes (average of 46.0 per race), fourth-best average

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 14.8
• Average Running Position of 8.8, second-best
• Driver Rating of 104.7, fourth-best
• 81 Fastest Laps Run, tied for third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.349 mph, second-fastest
• 932 (82.3%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
• 254 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.7
• Average Running Position of 13.1, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 104.1, fifth-best
• 48 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 175.272 mph, fifth-fastest
• 821 (72.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• One win, eight top fives, 12 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.9
• Average Running Position of 14.9, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 95.7, ninth-best
• 43 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 174.926 mph, eighth-fastest
• 793 (70.1%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
• 226 Quality Passes, sixth-most

At Michigan International Speedway:

History
• Groundbreaking took place on Sept. 28, 1967.
• The track has had 77 NASCAR Sprint Cup races. Other than 1973, which had just one race, there have been two races each season since 1969.
• The first race was 500 miles in length; the second was scheduled for 600. The track was re-measured to 2.04-miles for the last race in 1970 and both races in 1971 – with the race distance being 402 miles. All other races have been scheduled for 400 miles.

Notebook
• Donnie Allison won the first pole at Michigan.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Michigan was won by Cale Yarborough.
• There have been 38 different pole winners; 18 drivers have more than one.
• 29 different drivers have won races, led by David Pearson (nine); 17 drivers have more than one victory there.
• The race winner has started from the pole 15 times, the most productive starting position.
• 61 of 77 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 44 from the first four spots. However, five of the past seven race winners started outside the top 10.
• The deepest in the field that a race winner has started was 28th by Tony Stewart in 2000.
• The Wood Brothers have won 11 races – more than any other organization. Their last victory was in 1991 with Dale Jarrett as the driver.
• There have been five different Coors Light Pole winners and five different race winners in the past five races.
• Carl Edwards has finished on the lead lap in all seven of his Michigan races.

NASCAR in the State of Michigan
• There have been 82 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Michigan:
• 94 NASCAR drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Michigan.
• There have been seven race winners from Michigan in NASCAR three national series:

Driver


NSCS


NNS


NCTS

Paul Goldsmith


9


0


0

Johnny Benson


1


3


9

Tim Fedewa


0


4


0

Butch Miller


0


2


1

Jack Sprague


0


1


28

Tracy Leslie


0


1


0

Bob Keselowski


0


0


1

Michigan International Speedway Data

Race #: 15 of 36 (6-15-08)
Track Size: 2 miles
• Race Length: 400 miles
• Banking/Corners: 18 degrees
• Banking/Frontstretch: 12 degrees
• Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees

Driver Rating at Michigan
Carl Edwards 112.3
Kurt Busch 106.8
Greg Biffle 105.4
Jimmie Johnson 104.7
Matt Kenseth 104.1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 98.3
Denny Hamlin 97.1
Jeff Gordon 97.0
Tony Stewart 95.7
Martin Truex Jr. 93.9
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at Michigan.

Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: J.J. Yeley (187.505 mph, 38.399 seconds)
2007 race winner: Carl Edwards, 148.072 mph, 6-17-07)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (194.232 mph, 37.069 seconds, (6-18-05)
Track race record: Dale Jarrett (173.997 mph, 6-13-99)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 40-44 laps, based on fuel mileage.