Statistical Advance: Analyzing The Samsung 500 At Texas Motor Speedway

Prior to Martinsville, the statistics suggested Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson would finally make their way back into the top 12. Both notched top-five finishes at the Virginia short track, and both now reside in the top 12 of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series standings.

Now the stats say it might be Matt Kenseth’s turn.

Kenseth slipped out of the top 12 after an eventful 30th-place finish at Martinsville. He’s now 15th.

Not to worry – Texas Motor Speedway, a Kenseth favorite, is on the horizon.

Kenseth won there in 2002, but it’s what he has done recently that might be most impressive. And though athletes rarely use the word “due,” Kenseth certainly is just that at Texas.

His last five finishes have gone like this: third, second, 12th, second, second. If not for a last lap pass for the lead by Jeff Burton in last season’s spring Texas race, he would have won.

Since the beginning of 2005, Kenseth has a Driver Rating of 103.2, an Average Running Position of 10.4, 92 Fastest Laps Run and has spent 72.5% of the laps in the top 15. All those figures rank in the top five during that span.

And just like last week when Martin Truex Jr.’s prior struggles at Martinsville made him a candidate to be displaced in the top 12, Ryan Newman could suffer the same fate.

Newman, 11th in the standings, has a Texas Driver Rating of 62.7, the lowest of any of the drivers in the top 12 (in his favor – a win there in 2003).

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2008 Top 12 at Texas Motor Speedway




Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating



1
Jeff Burton
14
0
2
3
6
1
16.9
83.1

2
Kevin Harvick
10
0
0
2
4
0
13.6
85.6

3
Greg Biffle
8
0
1
1
2
4
24.5
90.6

4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11
1
1
3
7
2
12.9
97.2

5
Kyle Busch
6
0
0
2
2
0
20.2
88.6

6
Tony Stewart
12
0
1
3
7
2
13.5
109.3

7
Kasey Kahne
7
1
1
2
2
3
21.6
84.3

8
Denny Hamlin
5
0
0
1
4
0
11.8
100.1

9
Jeff Gordon
14
0
0
5
7
2
15.2
93.3

10
Jimmie Johnson
9
0
1
4
7
1
9.2
104.1

11
Ryan Newman
9
2
1
2
2
3
25.8
62.7

12
Clint Bowyer
4
0
0
1
1
0
14.8
83.0



Selected Driver Highlights – Texas Motor Speedway-specific
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Texas Motor Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last six races at Texas. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One top five, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 12.0
• Average Running Position of 13.1, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.0, fifth-best
• 87 Fastest Laps Run, tied for eighth-most
• 343 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• 1,464 (72.9%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
• 222 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• One win, three top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.9
• Average Running Position of 10.4, third-best
• Driver Rating of 97.2, sixth-best
• 89 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 331 Green Flag Passes
• 1,706 (84.9%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
• Series-high 229 Quality Passes

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
• One win
• Average finish of 18.2
• Driver Rating of 88.7, 10th-best
• 87 Fastest Laps Run, tied for eighth-most
• 365 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• 1,310 (65.2%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
• 176 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Five top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 15.2
• Average Running Position of 12.1, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 93.3, eighth-best
• 90 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 1,295 (64.5%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
• 170 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• One top five, four top 10s
• Average finish of 11.8
• Average Running Position of 11.4, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.1, fourth-best
• 64 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• 1,221 (72.9%) Laps in the Top 15, tied for fifth-best percentage
• 175 Quality Passes for an average of 35.0 per race, fifth-best average

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 9.2
• Average Running Position of 10.4, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 104.1, second-best
• 103 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 1,528 (76.1%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
• 191 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• One win, five top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 10.3
• Average Running Position of 10.4, second-best
• Driver Rating of 103.2, third-best
• 92 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 355 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
• 1,457 (72.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet)
• One top five, three top 10s
• Average finish of 9.4
• Average Running Position of 10.8, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.7, seventh-best
• 304 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
• 1,294 (77.3%) Laps in the Top 15, third-highest percentage
• 190 Quality Passes (38.0 per race), third-best per race figure

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 13.5
• Series-high Average Running Position of 7.7
• Series-high Driver Rating of 109.3
• Series-high 195 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-high 1,786 (88.9%) Laps in the Top 15
• 198 Quality Passes, third-most

At Texas Motor Speedway:
History
• Construction on Texas Motor Speedway began in 1995.
• The original configuration called for an unusual dual banking system that had 24 degrees of banking for stock cars and eight degrees for open-wheel cars.
• The first NASCAR race at Texas was a NASCAR Nationwide Series event on April 5, 1997.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Texas was on April 6, 1997.
• In 1998, Turn 4 at Texas was reshaped to ease the transition from the turns to the front straightaway.
• A second renovation started after the 1998 race which eliminated the dual banking and gave the track its current configuration.

Notebook
• There have been 14 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Texas Motor Speedway, one per season from 1997 through 2004 and two races per year since 2005.
• One hundred and eleven drivers have competed in NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Texas. Eighty-nine have completed in more than one race there.
• Jeremy Mayfield won the first timed qualifying at Texas on April 4, 1998 (qualifying was canceled due to inclement weather in 1997).
• Jeff Burton won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
• Ten drivers have scored Coors Light Poles at Texas, led by Bobby Labonte and Ryan Newman with two each.
• 13 drivers have won races. Only Jeff Burton (1997 and April 2007) has repeated as race winner there.
• Roush Fenway Racing has won five races at Texas, more than any other team.
• 11 races at Texas have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne, 2006).
• Matt Kenseth started 31st en route to his victory at Texas in 2002, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started at Texas.
• There has been one green-white-checkered finish at Texas: 2006 fall (339/334).
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in four of his five races at Texas. His 80% top-10 rate is the best of any driver with more than two Texas starts.

The Local Flavor
• There have been 23 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Texas.
• 64 NASCAR drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Texas.
• There have been seven race winners from Texas in NASCAR’s three national series:
Driver
NSCS
NNS
NCTS

Terry Labonte
22
11
1

Bobby Labonte
21
10
1

A.J. Foyt
7
0
0

Billy Wade
4
0
0

Bobby Hillin Jr.
1
2
0

Johnny Rutherford
1
0
0

David Starr
0
0
4



Texas Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 7 of 36 (4-6-08) Number of laps: 500
Track Size: 1.5 miles Length of Event: 263 miles
• Banking/corners: 24 degrees
• Banking/straights: 5 degrees
• Frontstretch: 2,250 feet
• Backstretch: 1,330 feet

Driver Rating at Texas
Tony Stewart 109.3
Jimmie Johnson 104.1
Matt Kenseth 103.2
Denny Hamlin 100.1
Kurt Busch 98.0
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 97.2
Martin Truex Jr. 95.7
Jeff Gordon 93.3
Greg Biffle 90.6
Carl Edwards 88.7
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at Texas.

Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: None (inclement weather)
2007 race winner: Jeff Burton, 143.359 mph, 4-15-07)
Track qualifying record: Brian Vickers (196.235 mph, 27.518 seconds, 11-3-06)
Track race record: Carl Edwards (151.055 mph, 11-6-05)

Pit Window: Every 50-55 laps, depending on fuel mileage