Statistical Advance: Analyzing the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway

Jeff Gordon finds himself in a peculiar position – outside the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series cut-off.

It’s a position he’s been in after every race but one this season (Gordon was in ninth after Martinsville). But prior to this season, the last time Gordon was outside the Chase cut-off was back in 2006 – after race No. 17 at Daytona (he was in 12th, when only 10 drivers made the Chase).

But Gordon’s season looks destined to right itself this weekend. Too many statistics suggest a return to the top 12 for the four-time champion:

- Gordon swept Talladega last season, in every way possible. In the spring race, he won from the pole and led a race-high 71 laps. In his fall win, Gordon led just one lap and started 34th.

- Gordon’s the active leader in wins at Talladega with six, and trails only Dale Earnhardt (10) in all-time wins.

- Gordon’s the restrictor plate king. His 12 restrictor plate victories are more than any other driver in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history.

- He ranks first in Talladega pre-race Driver Rating, a telling stat this season. Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson ranked first in Driver Rating going into Phoenix and won. Overall, the No. 1 ranked driver in pre-race Driver Rating has finished in the top 10 in six of eight races this season.

- He ranks high in two other Loop Data statistics. His Average Running Position of 14.3 is sixth-best in the series and he’s fourth in Laps in the Top 15, having run 63.6% of the laps among the top 15.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2008 Top 12 at Talladega Superspeedway


Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating



1
Jeff Burton
28
0
0
2
10
5
19.4
79.3

2
Kyle Busch
6
0
0
0
0
4
31.7
67.3

3
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
16
0
5
7
9
4
14.3
81.2

4
Jimmie Johnson
12
1
1
4
5
5
17.8
89.8

5
Kevin Harvick
14
1
0
3
7
0
13.6
76.3

6
Denny Hamlin
4
0
0
1
1
0
17.0
89.8

7
Tony Stewart
18
0
0
8
11
3
12.6
93.1

8
Clint Bowyer
4
0
0
0
0
2
30.3
55.8

9
Carl Edwards
7
0
0
1
3
2
21.7
73.0

10
Greg Biffle
10
0
0
0
0
4
26.0
70.6

11
Kasey Kahne
8
0
0
1
1
1
20.4
74.1

12
Ryan Newman
12
0
0
3
5
3
18.6
83.0



Selected Driver Highlights – Talladega Superspeedway-specific
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Talladega Superspeedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last six races at Talladega. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Six top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 10.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 11.3
• Driver Rating of 95.0, second-best
• Series-high 36 “Closer” positions improved (positions improved in the last 10% of races)
• 2,253 Green Flag Passes, second-most
• Series-high 890 (78.1%) Laps in the Top 15
• Series-high 1,794 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Five wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 14.3
• Average Running Position of 18.5, 14th-best
• Driver Rating of 81.2, 11th-best
• 29 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 602 (52.8%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
• 1,194 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Six wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.9
• Average Running Position of 14.3, sixth-best
• Series-high Driver Rating of 98.5
• 725 (63.6%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• One top five
• Average finish of 17.0
• Average Running Position of 14.2, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 89.8, sixth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 192.086, fourth-fastest
• 415 (54.9%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-best percentage
• 852 Quality Passes (average of 213 per race), eighth-best average

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 17.8
• Average Running Position of 14.9, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 89.8, sixth-best
• 1,629 Green Flag Passes, 14th-best
• 699 (61.3%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
• 1,380 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• Three top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 16.1
• Average Running Position of 13.3, third-best
• Driver Rating of 88.9, eighth-best
• 23 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 10th-most
• 756 (66.3%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
• 1,480 Quality Passes, third-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 26 Crown Royal Ford)
• Three top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 17.8
• Average Running Position of 14.8, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 92.6, fourth-best
• 1,838 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
• 729 (63.9%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
• 1,287 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• Eight top fives, 11 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.6
• Average Running Position of 12.6, second-best
• Driver Rating of 93.1, third-best
• 22 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 13th-best
• 2,141 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
• 724 (63.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
• 1,252 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 21.3
• Average Running Position of 14.0, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 91.5, fifth-best
• 22 “Closer” positions gained, fourth-most
• 637 (67.2%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
• 1,109 Quality Passes for an average of 221.8 per race, fifth-best average

At Talladega Superspeedway:

History

Construction began on Talladega Superspeedway on May 23, 1968.
The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on Sept. 14, 1969.
The second race was moved from July to October in 1997.
Notebook

There have been 77 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Talladega Superspeedway since the track opened in 1969; two a year every year except the inaugural season.
Bobby Isaac won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole at Talladega in September 1969. Isaac went on to win the first three poles there.
33 different drivers have won poles at Talladega.
Bill Elliott leads all drivers with eight poles at Talladega.
Jeremy Mayfield, Joe Nemechek and Elliott Sadler lead all active drivers with three poles each at Talladega.
Richard Brickhouse won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Talladega.
35 different drivers have posted victories at Talladega led by Dale Earnhardt (10); 18 drivers have won more than once.
Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with six victories at Talladega.
Rick Hendrick has won 10 races at Talladega, more than any other car owner.
31 of 77 races at Talladega have been won from a top-two starting position, including 13 from the pole; 21 have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
The furthest back in the field that a Talladega race winner started was 36th by Jeff Gordon in 2000.
All of the NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Talladega have been scheduled for 188 laps, 500 miles.
Bobby Hamilton won the caution-free 2001 spring Talladega race with an average speed of 184.008 mph. His average speed for 188 laps was just 0.853 mph slower than the Coors Light Pole speed for that race set by Stacy Compton.
Mark Martin’s pace in the 1997 spring race set an all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for the fastest race ever run. He won the caution-free race with an average speed of 188.354 mph and covered the 500-mile distance in two hours, 39 minutes and 18 seconds.
Dale Earnhardt Jr., finished 42nd and 14th in his first two races at Talladega. In his 14 races there since, he finished eighth or better nine times, including five victories and two second-place finishes. His four consecutive victories (October 2001 through April 2003) are the most ever by a driver at Talladega. Buddy Baker (three, May 1975 through May 1976) is the only other driver to win more than two consecutive races there.
The Local Flavor

There have been 96 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Alabama.
60 NASCAR drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Alabama – including Bobby Allison who is tied for third on the all-time winners list with 84.
There have been seven race winners from Alabama in NASCAR’s three national series:
Driver NSCS NNS NCTS
Bobby Allison 84 2 0
Davey Allison 19 0 0
Neil Bonnett 18 1 0
Donnie Allison 10 0 0
Red Byron 2 0 0
Steve Grissom 0 11 0
Rick Crawford 0 0 5
Talladega Superspeedway Data
Race #: 9 of 36 (4-27-08)
Track Size: 2.66 miles
• Banking/Corners: 33 degrees
• Banking/Frontstretch: 16.5 degrees
• Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
• Frontstretch: 4,300 feet
• Backstretch: 4,000 feet

Driver Rating at Talladega
Jeff Gordon 98.5
Kurt Busch 95.0
Tony Stewart 93.1
Jamie McMurray 92.6
Brian Vickers 91.5
Denny Hamlin 89.8
Jimmie Johnson 89.8
Matt Kenseth 88.9
Ryan Newman 83.0
Elliott Sadler 81.4
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at Talladega.

Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Jeff Gordon (192.069 mph, 49.857 seconds)
2007 race winner: Jeff Gordon, 154.167 mph, 4-29-07)
Track qualifying record: Bill Elliott (212.809 mph, 44.998 seconds, 4-30-87)
Track race record: Mark Martin (188.354 mph, 5-10-97)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 34-36 laps, based on fuel mileage